Similar to early-season views on Torii Hunter, I and many others expected the Rangers sign a Free Agent starting pitcher this next Winter to add to the rotation for 2008. But with the upsides of failing fast now in full effect at the Ballpark, I'm not sure they should.
The earliest the Rangers window for being a true contender will open is 2009. So why not let all the young arms in the Rangers organization get every chance they can with as many innings as possible in the “Bigs” to become winning pitchers for '09 and beyond?
Millwood and Padilla are the only pitchers (and 2 of only 5 Rangers total) under contract past this season. And, with one of the league's 5 lowest team salaries after dumping Teixeira, Gagne, Lofton and Mahay's salaries ($22.2 million annualized), the Rangers certainly have all the flexibility and tons of money available to rebuild their rotation and fill holes in their lineup and bench.
But the Rangers also have a large collection of highly touted prospect young arms. While I'm not at all confident in the Rangers’ ability to turn prospects into winning major league starters, the law of averages has to kick in sometime. Doesn't it? I mean, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every so often.
So would it be better for the Rangers to let the remaining 3 spots in their rotation be filled by those prospects, instead of filling one with a free agent signing? (Of course, Millwood and Padilla’s seasons make them less than surefire long-term locks for any rotation and they could be traded away, but that’s a discussion for another time.)
I include McCarthy and Gabbard on the Rangers’ prospects list, as they still haven't completed a successful transition to the majors and are not bona fide winning starters. Then there's Tejeda, Loe and Wood who've had plenty of chances to get some traction already (not to mention Rheinecker – who’s about out of chances). Are they worth more time in the rotation to see what could happen? Or are they meant for the bullpen? And then there's Volquez, Hurley, Rupe, Harrison, Galarraga and Mendoza coming up from the minors.
That’s at least 12 pitchers who are touted to have various levels of major league potential. At least two or three of them should become major league winners, right? Again, the law of averages has to work in the Rangers’ favor at some point, doesn’t it.
Plus, the list of pitchers who’ll be free agents this winter doesn’t look too exciting and looks pretty old (source MLB Trade Rumors):
Carlos Zambrano (27)
Curt Schilling (41)
Jason Jennings (29)
Koji Uehara (33)
Freddy Garcia (32)
Kenny Rogers (43)
Jon Lieber (38)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Tomo Ohka (32)
John Thomson (34)
Kip Wells (31)
Wade Miller (31)
Livan Hernandez (33)*
Randy Wolf (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Paul Byrd (37) - $8MM club option for '08
Jeff Weaver (31)
Tom Glavine (42) - $9MM player option for '08
Kris Benson (33) - $7.5MM club option for '08
Jaret Wright (32)
David Wells (45)
Eric Milton (32)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Matt Clement (33)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Josh Fogg (31)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Odalis Perez (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Brett Tomko (35) - $4.5MM mutual option for '08
If the Rangers can sign Carlos Zambrano, they should. He’s a true ace who could at 27 could anchor the Rangers’ rotation for years. But like so many aces before him, why would he come to the Ballpark and the Rangers? It would take crazy money for him to pass on the numerous great offers he’ll get from teams who will be contending for years to come.
So, short of a miracle signing of Zambrano, I think the Rangers best move may be to stick with the arms they have and see how these prospects play out. Then they’ll have the trade deadlines next season and the winter of ’08-’09 – when they’ll have a more clear picture of what they have in the guys they have – to shore up any holes in the rotation.
The problem there is that they’ll likely still have several large holes. But we’ve got time to wait and see.
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8 comments:
The answer to your question: Yes, The Rangers should sign a pitcher. Here is my take, the Rangers should dig deep into their wallets and sign Carlos Zambrano, because from 03′-07 this guy has been a 13+ game winner. My point is that he has proven himself to be a super-arm in the league. If the Rangers could lock up him for whatever the cost he can pitch at the #1 spot, which he is already in Chicago, then the Rangers can continue to build their prospects behind Zambrano (giving that Zambrano continues his yearly trend). Millwood and Padilla can continue their mediocracy behind their sure-fire ace. Continue to let Loe and Gabbard become reliable starters, and let the random decent guys continue to battle for starts.
The Rangers should dish out the necessary cash to sign Zambrano to a two-year deal, high price deal. NOT a humungus ten year, $250 million dollar contract.
haha who wants to stay on the same team for 10 years?
Finally, Kip Wells shouldn’t even be included on that list, because we ALREADY had him.
The Rangers should sign one starting pitcher and one starting pitcher only. Zambrano. Period. The rest are either too old or too ineffective. If you're gonna overpay for a player, overpay for a good one. If they can't hypnotize him into coming to Arlington, they might as well wait another year and try signing Johan Santana.
By the way, John Koronka is not with the Rangers anymore. He's now pitching in the Indians organization.
Big Z would be a good signing, But a few things that could hurt him are his size and his walk rate. He's a pretty big guy and there is no telling what the texas heat would do to him if he didn't come in to ST in good shape(ala kevin millwood). The other thing that kind of scares me off is his BB rate, he's a horse on the mound and will give you 200 innings, but that will likely come with 100+ BB's.
Out of those free agents, i think their is 5 or6 guys that the rangers will take a serious look at. Jason Jennings, Kenny rogers, john thomson and if randy wolf's option doesn't get picked up i think he will also be a serious candidate. I'd be pretty happy with Jennings he has shown he can handle pitching in a hitter's park.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see
Jason Jennings?
Are we really that awful? Or is there some kind of favoritism because he is from Dallas?
In 7 major league seasons (07 included), In how many seasons has Jason Jennings posted an ERA below 4.50? In how many seasons has he pitched more innings than hits allowed? The answer to both questions is 1.
For his career, opposing batters' line: .283/.359/.443
He just had one good year in 2006 and as I recall, MLB made a big deal about the Rockies "tampering" with baseballs (well, sort of).
He may be a groundball pitcher but his success in 06 wasn't due to him getting batters to hit them on the ground; for that year he posted his lowest groundout/flyout ratio of his career (up to that point).
He'll probably get a decent contract. No thanks to his pathetic performance this year, though.
yea we are that awful.
Jason jennings has a career 4.87 era (4.70 if you take out this season). That's lower than loe's, tejeda's, wood's and on par with vicente padilla.And he's been below the league average for era throughout his career. And he's done this all while pitching in a severe hitter's park. He's averaged 19 homeruns a season, which is comparable to padilla's 18 per.
You may have a bias against jennings because he is from dallas, but he would fit right in with this super-hero pitching staff.
If Jennings is going to cost $7-8 mill/year, we might as well go with Loe, Wood, or Tejeda.
Why overpay for mediocre pitching when we already have plenty of it and it's cheap (except for Padilla).
I agree we are pretty bad. But why "add another stripe to the zebra"?
IMHO, if this were any other year, Jennigs should be considered. He's a guy I've always thought might do well in the Ballpark considering that he's probably consistently done better than anyone at Coors Field.
But for '08 and even '09, giving starts to a guy like Jennings, takes development time away from one of the Rangers' young guys who are cheaper and may have more upside (we certainly must find out now - unless we ship 2-3 of them off in a trade for a proven starter).
P.S. Be sure to vote in the Quick Poll about the Rangers rotation for next season!
eric bedard
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